The term “interesting times” is an ironic description of uncertain and volatile times; the times we’re living through at the moment. In the decade since I first wrote my book CLARITY, the levels of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) have been increasing, and the signs are all around us:
- Social media algorithms hacking our limbic systems
- Increasing polarisation and tribalism globally
- Growing concern about climate change
- Humanitarian crisis in mental health
- Global pandemic
- Increasing authoritarianism
- Wars (now with drones, AI, bots etc)
- Exponential technology (6Ds)
- Artificial Intelligence set to profoundly disrupt many industries
And here’s the thing: for most of human history, we’ve been living in a world where “linear thinking” was good enough to get us through the day. But we’re now living in an exponential world, and linear thinking is no longer suitable for the challenges we face. Here’s how I put it in my book RESULTS: Think Less, Achieve More:
DISTINCTION: Linear thinking vs exponential insight
If you were to place one grain of rice on the first square of a chessboard, two on the second, four on the third and so on, doubling every time, something surprising would happen. By the time you get to the 64th square, you would need hundreds of billions of grains of rice.
This surprises us, because we’ve been conditioned to think in terms of linear increments rather than exponential jumps. But digital technology has no such limitation. Computing power grows exponentially: it doubles in speed and halves in size and cost roughly every 18 months (a function known as Moore’s Law). Our intellects have evolved for the linear world we’ve lived in for most of human history. But digital technology is driving us at high speed into a VUCA world that requires a new, more leveraged way of thinking.
While linear thinking can be useful, it has an inherent limitation: its only reference point is the past; the thoughts you’ve already had. All too often, we approach strategy, goal setting and problem solving by identifying problems and solutions from our current level of consciousness, then setting out to solve them from the same perspective.
By definition, linear thinking is blind to the present moment, and the implications of what’s happening right now. We’re riding the wave of the information revolution; a wave powered by exponential technology. When Airbnb launched in August 2008, the team didn’t have access to better data than Hyatt. They didn’t have a bigger budget or more experience. What they did have was exponential insight: realizations that aligned them with reality and allowed them to discover the future of accommodation.
Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and Bill Gates have all expressed concern about the enormous risks to humanity that artificial intelligence poses. We have to recognize and harness the power of exponential insight if we want to sense and respond to the challenges of the digital age. We have to understand the nature of Thought if we are to survive and thrive as individuals, as organizations, as societies and as a species.
The implications of exponential technologies are extraordinary. Here’s an example:
Clarity Coach Mike Garde recently gave me a heads up about Google’s new “Notebook LLM” which can create things which would have seemed like science fiction just a year ago (Mike works with businesses and individuals helping them use AI in their work). I uploaded the 2nd edition of my book CLARITY to Notebook LLM and asked it to create a brief (11-minute) podcast episode with two people discussing the ideas in the book.
As you’ll hear, while there are some errors (they talk about the principles in a more ‘cognitive’ way than I’d like), they do a pretty great job of summarising some of the key points in the book. And of course, when I say “they”, I mean the AI that has generated this conversation. Let’s face it; if you didn’t know it was AI, you wouldn’t know it was AI.
So how do you navigate times of uncertainty and volatility?
As far as I’m concerned, the two most valuable things to guide you in this are knowing a) how experience is created and b) who you really are. These two realisations open the door to the exponential insights that can guide us in these interesting times.
Wishing you a beautiful weekend!
Tons of love
Jamie